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Post by shipton on Feb 2, 2022 7:34:20 GMT
Race 1 I have added in a column that shows the acceleration between split 1 and split 2 and removed the ART LIn column Attachment Deleted
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Post by shipton on Feb 2, 2022 9:40:53 GMT
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Post by shipton on Feb 2, 2022 11:19:52 GMT
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Post by shipton on Feb 3, 2022 5:05:08 GMT
Race 4 A few dogs in this have good early speed but then tend to have a flat spot to Split 2.If you look at a runner like Wynburn Chief, his T1-2 acceleration is high scoring and his run home rating is high, but his ART is out of whack with both those figures, this means he is not combing both those good runs together into one fast time. Attachment Deleted
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Post by shipton on Feb 3, 2022 5:40:18 GMT
Race 5 He's so cool backing up after a 515mtr normally a negative but going really well, Dewanna Whatever since it's race fall has been racing well below it's par times, so we have been against it in it's last few starts until it shows a return Attachment Deleted
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Post by shipton on Feb 3, 2022 5:59:12 GMT
Race 6 top two dogs are both very good, the #1 needs the #2 and #3 (as both prefer drawn wider) to run as blockers to the first turn to get a run thru Attachment Deleted
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Post by shipton on Feb 3, 2022 6:17:10 GMT
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Post by shipton on Feb 3, 2022 6:49:04 GMT
Race 8 Based on the expectation of the current odds and adjusting the relevant margin for the Fav in this they expect it to run close to 26.10 or better, about 26.19 is it's current best adjusted time. Attachment Deleted
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Post by shipton on Feb 6, 2022 1:47:43 GMT
here is an example of what we were talking about on the shoutbox. This dog is Buckle Up Kenzie, I have copy an pasted it's last relevant formlines, detailing first split , 2nd split, t1-t2 acceleration that is the difference between 1st and 2nd split , Run Home and finally the Actual Race time rating , at the bottom of the table is a correlation between each column and the ART rating, in this example using the adj, 1st split rating with the ART rating provides a weak correlation of .28 and you can see each columns correlation figure , the strongest correlation for this dog is the t1-t2 acceleration, .82 so in this example we should use this dogs t1-t2 figures as too a guide to what actual finish time it will run, so now we can hone in on its median and average ratings but also if this was our only data , we could look at the other runners and see if it might get an advantageous run thru that portion of the race. Attachment Deleted
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