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Post by shipton on Mar 27, 2022 2:06:10 GMT
LCN Race 6The 5 looks to match early speed with the 4 dog, the 4 dog races centre track usually, which will ensure the 5 dog races a lot more extra ground, it should be able to clear the 1 at T1 , 7 an 8 look to be kept wide thru T1 , 6 an 3 don't have the early speed, the 2 dog looks to be kept wide also thru T1 by the 1 dog. I moved the 4 down in rating from 109 to 107 which shifts it's pricing from $1.7 to $2.3 or so
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Post by shipton on Mar 27, 2022 3:13:24 GMT
LCN Race 3Most of these have run in heats a few weeks ago, the fastest being 2,8,5 . the 5 looks likely to lead from the 4 with the 2 and 1 racing just behind them, 8 dog looks to be out the back , but perfectly drawn
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Post by shipton on Mar 27, 2022 5:44:34 GMT
LCN Race 4The 2 dog might be able to hold out the 6 and the 7 in run T1, it will make it harder for the both the 6 an 7, the 2 will also move wide thru turn, the 5 has run fastest time on track but will be slow early but very unreliable, 8 is strong run home but how it gets to rails is the issue, looks to be 2nd last and caught wide.
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Post by shipton on Mar 27, 2022 6:11:24 GMT
LCN Race 8The 8 dog looks likely to be able to lead this field, from the 2-6 , the 6 moves inside and the 2 will be looking for the rails , whereas the 1 will shift off rails normally 5 dog has posted 92-90.9-94.2-93.3 ratings last 4 starts is racing down on its Par ratings, 2 dog has posted 98.8-96-98 L3 so very consistent 6 dog has 99.9-93.7-96.6 L3 (1 pt = 1 metre difference)
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Post by shipton on Mar 27, 2022 6:37:41 GMT
LCN Race 10the 1 dog looks likely to lead from the 8 who will try and cross from wide, if the 1 holds the 8 out it is going to run those extra metres, 7 has been running below par, and doesnt look to clear the in the run to T1 , 6 looks to get a clean getaway with the 3-4-5 all being very slow early, the 3 will be looking to get wide and run on. FTP in the heats a few weeks ago, then ran poorly last start , maybe should be double its ran 91.5-95-101.9 L3, the 8 dog has gone 94.5-98.4-101.9 L3 If you lengthen the 3 dogs odds the 6 will shorten markedly as would the 8, not that i would shorten the 8 dog based on it's box draw.
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Post by shipton on Mar 27, 2022 6:58:00 GMT
LCN Race 1I have added a 2nd market into this race after noticing the market I re-vised the 8 dogs ratings which has changed a few other ratings, I looked at the last start again of the 8 it ran at HOB340 20.32 and the meeting dist prop. TV was -.15 = 20.17 . I looked at the individual exp vs act. Race TV -.023 = 20.297 which puts its Rating around 91 or so The below comments were based on incorrect data please ignore Maiden dogs with plenty of starts , 8 dog returned from spell and improved a mile last start from bx1, it looks likely to lead with the 3 dog who has slow beginners drawn outside , 1 has been very slow early
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