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Post by shipton on May 11, 2022 9:23:09 GMT
Race 12 looks likely to lead all the way, with the 3 chasing, 6 is maybe last early and will run on
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Post by kevinm on May 11, 2022 9:58:42 GMT
a question to any math guru. can you give me an excel formulae to calculate the best odds given the sky numbers. Example #1 61 points $2.6 place (only interested in place) #3 82 p $2.7, #4 90 P $2, #6 88 P $1.6. That was Wenty race 4 today results: 4,1,3,2. I noticed that sky numbers less than 100 and greater than 80 have a good S/R for place but it has to be the best odd vr sky number, I can sort of calculate it roughly by looking at them but need a quicker more accurate way. There are usually only 3 to for in this range so not a great problem.
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Post by shipton on May 11, 2022 10:02:16 GMT
Race 37 looks likely to lead from the 6 and then the 4 . 7 rates early speed 101 , 6 rates 100, 4 rates 99 all the others are in the 98's , unless the 9 gets a start it has an early speed figure 99.4
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Post by shipton on May 11, 2022 10:08:06 GMT
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a question to any math guru. can you give me an excel formulae to calculate the best odds given the sky numbers. Example #1 61 points $2.6 place (only interested in place) #3 82 p $2.7, #4 90 P $2, #6 88 P $1.6. That was Wenty race 4 today results: 4,1,3,2. I noticed that sky numbers less than 100 and greater than 80 have a good S/R for place but it has to be the best odd vr sky number, I can sort of calculate it roughly by looking at them but need a quicker more accurate way. There are usually only 3 to for in this range so not a great problem. Kev, if you have all the dividends/payoffs you could do a linear regression formula so a 90 rater = $2.10, a 88 = $2.40 and so on but you would need both sets of data for a lot of races you should break it down by track and distance, just create a table with the rating one side and the payoffs the other or in decimal form and then use in Excel use both formulas Slope and Intercept ( look up help and it will explain what you need to do)
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Post by shipton on May 12, 2022 4:00:31 GMT
Race 4The 7 dog looks to be about 5th early , the 2 likely to lead from the 1 and then the 8 wide, how the 7 gets across by the turn is the big question, 1 will just sit on rails, 2 dog ran poorly last start but that was in heavy rain, 4 walked out as well the night of heavy rain and did nothing
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Post by shipton on May 12, 2022 4:20:19 GMT
Race 56 an 7 both like rails, the 1st split times for the 4-5-6-7 are very close , 2 does have a little bit of an edge, to the top turn split, the 5 drops off the 4 stays about same and the 2-6-7 keep driving to that 2nd mark. 1 and 8 look to be well out the back 3 looks to be able to move centre it will run on
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Post by shipton on May 12, 2022 4:42:57 GMT
Race 6the 8 has two very slow beginners drawn under, should get clean space early, 2 looks to lead the 1 an 3 , 4 looks to be squeezed out in run to 1st split
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Post by shipton on May 12, 2022 5:03:48 GMT
Race 7the 3 might be able to lead with two slow box dogs either side, 8-7 both begin and will look to move inside, 6 will be out the back again and storming home 1 is poorly drawn inside
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Post by shipton on May 12, 2022 5:22:19 GMT
Race 82 dog has twice marred in its limited career, rates best early speed should lead 4 looks to be 2nd thru the splits with the 6 and 3 following, 8 dog form has dropped right off has rated a 96 but that was drawn inside looks to be out back an crossing to rail, has good run home times but too slow early
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