kevinm: their other system generated 200 bets a year I just don't know what's going on, never mind lost a lot more money than a $150 over the years. Jun 22, 2024 12:30:14 GMT *

kevinm: OK Shipton I quoted from memory was close enuff. Jun 22, 2024 12:29:14 GMT

kevinm: How do you interpret this? Is it ten weeks or a year? ibb.co/gZDcmqf Jun 22, 2024 12:28:04 GMT

shipton: Kevin just looking at the number of bets 48 X .35 X $50 X 3.2 and a profit of $1,100 the calcs just don't look right Jun 22, 2024 8:16:35 GMT

BB: calculations will be redundant. By looking at it in sets, you know that if you have 3 sets fail in a row, something is really broken so all the calculations are meaningless. Jun 22, 2024 4:33:39 GMT

BB: If someone says you need to account for the mathematical probability of X and law of this and that blah blah blah and the whole risk of ruin thing, that doesn't really work in the real world because a system or model will eventually fail and your prior Jun 22, 2024 4:31:56 GMT

BB: e.g. avg. 35% + (STD of 5 * 3 = 15) = 50, so 15 * .50 = 7.5 * $50 = $375 when flat betting for one set, 3 sets (generous) $1,125. Covers most real world scenarios. Using Kelly or whatever it's obviously a function of percentages. Jun 22, 2024 4:29:25 GMT

BB: individual strike rate is and then take the average and standard deviation of those, then multiple the STD by 3 or 4 and add it to the average and use that as your maximum draw down to carry a losing set. 1 should be enough, but 3 would be generous. Jun 22, 2024 4:25:11 GMT

BB: Depends. There are an abundance of theoretical formulas for calculating that, but real world its best to just look at it as failed series or sets. If you have a independent split of say 300 results, divide that by 15 (the set) and then see what each sets Jun 22, 2024 4:22:46 GMT

kevinm: What sort of a bank you need to bet $50 at a S/R of 35% to see it through? Average price $3.2 Jun 21, 2024 23:31:34 GMT *

kevinm: Well so much for that, no tips and now they tell me there were only 48 bets for the last year for a profit of about $1100 at a $50 bet, a hundred and fifty bucks down the drain for the sub. How stupid can you get? Don't say! A dart will do from now on. Jun 21, 2024 23:29:47 GMT

kevinm: visitor, my first tips are coming on Friday, they say it's before 4PM so plenty of time to place a bet for Saturday races, don't quite know if they provide betting guidance as well or if it's win, place or eaw. Let you know. Jun 18, 2024 17:58:26 GMT

shipton: Have posted the result sheet for Monday night have included an additional column with some explanation in the thread, might be of some interest to somone Jun 18, 2024 9:34:18 GMT

shipton: have posted the sheet for Monday night meeting will add some more Jun 16, 2024 6:17:45 GMT

shipton: posted a last weeks meeting results, HK has impacted my schedules a lot this yr. for some reason. hopefully I can get to posting the Thursday night meetings Jun 15, 2024 11:40:46 GMT *

shipton: you have to be always tinkering, I still find some unknown things at Start time have been included into my predictive algo. Meaning say SP or BSP can't be in your model as it is unknown until the dogs jump, but you could include your own previous pricing Jun 15, 2024 11:36:38 GMT