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shirley God Posts: 926	WED Dec 26, 2018 2:16:58 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by shirley on Dec 26, 2018 2:16:58 GMT RANDWICK 3/11,8,1,10,3 6/11,10,9,3,8 7/5,9,8,6,3 8/9,15,10,5,8 CAUFIELD 2/10,19,15,12,13 4/6,4,12,13,7 5/4,3,1,9,5 6/4,6,7,2,3 7/9,1,5,6,3 8/3,6,9,7,2
	Last Edit: Dec 26, 2018 2:40:09 GMT by shirley

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shipton: Have loaded the sheet up with five races for Monday night so far, may look at the last two races Jun 30, 2024 9:02:24 GMT

shipton: Just put up the Hobart 27/6 result sheet, track played on the fast side Jun 30, 2024 0:57:31 GMT

shipton: Uploaded the sheet for Hobart will add some more markets later Jun 26, 2024 6:59:19 GMT

shipton: just added the race result sheet for Monday and Tuesday meets. Slow tracks both days Jun 26, 2024 3:05:53 GMT

BB: Unless someone can break it down and show it working as I described below, they're just selling hopes and dreams. Jun 22, 2024 13:22:32 GMT

kevinm: I will email them to clarify, let you know. Jun 22, 2024 13:21:03 GMT

kevinm: their other system generated 200 bets a year I just don't know what's going on, never mind lost a lot more money than a $150 over the years. Jun 22, 2024 12:30:14 GMT *

kevinm: OK Shipton I quoted from memory was close enuff. Jun 22, 2024 12:29:14 GMT

kevinm: How do you interpret this? Is it ten weeks or a year? ibb.co/gZDcmqf Jun 22, 2024 12:28:04 GMT

shipton: Kevin just looking at the number of bets 48 X .35 X $50 X 3.2 and a profit of $1,100 the calcs just don't look right Jun 22, 2024 8:16:35 GMT

BB: calculations will be redundant. By looking at it in sets, you know that if you have 3 sets fail in a row, something is really broken so all the calculations are meaningless. Jun 22, 2024 4:33:39 GMT

BB: If someone says you need to account for the mathematical probability of X and law of this and that blah blah blah and the whole risk of ruin thing, that doesn't really work in the real world because a system or model will eventually fail and your prior Jun 22, 2024 4:31:56 GMT

BB: e.g. avg. 35% + (STD of 5 * 3 = 15) = 50, so 15 * .50 = 7.5 * $50 = $375 when flat betting for one set, 3 sets (generous) $1,125. Covers most real world scenarios. Using Kelly or whatever it's obviously a function of percentages. Jun 22, 2024 4:29:25 GMT

BB: individual strike rate is and then take the average and standard deviation of those, then multiple the STD by 3 or 4 and add it to the average and use that as your maximum draw down to carry a losing set. 1 should be enough, but 3 would be generous. Jun 22, 2024 4:25:11 GMT

BB: Depends. There are an abundance of theoretical formulas for calculating that, but real world its best to just look at it as failed series or sets. If you have a independent split of say 300 results, divide that by 15 (the set) and then see what each sets Jun 22, 2024 4:22:46 GMT

kevinm: What sort of a bank you need to bet $50 at a S/R of 35% to see it through? Average price $3.2 Jun 21, 2024 23:31:34 GMT *

kevinm: Well so much for that, no tips and now they tell me there were only 48 bets for the last year for a profit of about $1100 at a $50 bet, a hundred and fifty bucks down the drain for the sub. How stupid can you get? Don't say! A dart will do from now on. Jun 21, 2024 23:29:47 GMT

kevinm: visitor, my first tips are coming on Friday, they say it's before 4PM so plenty of time to place a bet for Saturday races, don't quite know if they provide betting guidance as well or if it's win, place or eaw. Let you know. Jun 18, 2024 17:58:26 GMT

shipton: Have posted the result sheet for Monday night have included an additional column with some explanation in the thread, might be of some interest to somone Jun 18, 2024 9:34:18 GMT

shipton: have posted the sheet for Monday night meeting will add some more Jun 16, 2024 6:17:45 GMT

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Post by shirley on Dec 26, 2018 2:16:58 GMT

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