Post by shirley on Oct 7, 2015 9:25:05 GMT
COPY
Perhaps look at it a different way. Rather than locking yourself into a strategy that limits when you can bet (“must be rated less than $15 by me”) why not think of value/overs as a minimum real percentage advantage that has to be achieved before you bet. For example if your rated probabilities total 100% and you decide that the minimum advantage you require is say ~5% in real terms (we work on slightly less) then at the following rated prices the odds you would need are:
Rated $2.00 can be bet at ~$2.25
Rated $3.00 can be bet at ~$3.60
Rated $5.00 can be bet at ~$6.50
Rated $10.00 can be bet at ~$20.00
Rated $15.00 can be bet at ~$60.00
Essentially the value/overs is the same for all the above examples, yet many punters would consider a dividend of $60.00 about a rated selection of $15.00 better value than $2.25 about a rated selection of $2.00 which is clearly not the case.
IMO another element worth considering is to then determine you own scale of confidence levels about each race you rate. Once complete I would recommend that you consider implementing a different size wager for each percentage point above your minimum advantage level if you know what I mean. Also for each confidence level apply a different Power Exponent so that your rated prices are more aggressive in the races in which you are most confident.
