Post by mick on Sept 7, 2019 12:30:54 GMT
Here it is, on time order maybe easier to understand, there is substance here.
shipton: good work Mo pretty easy win , see the 2nd fav on the home turn Ban about an hour ago
Mo: Thanks Shipton - If someone had the patience , there would be easily Profits made by selective wagering - Dog that will lead and be hard to run down - Just need to find a reasonable Odds - and the 100% Market from Ladbrokes allowed that here
shipton: It's really not about selective wagering Mo, it's using different wagering strategies for different races. As i have said Handicapping and wagering can't be mixed together one is about strike rate the other is ROI
And most ppl only like to talk about Handicapping, if you mix Handicapping and wagering together you will get variance all the time, In wagering you want stability and the only way I know how to achieve that and i have posted this for at least 20yrs now
wagering factors are like up and down in a grade number , wins in a formline 1-1-1 etc a trainers name the last 5 starts or recency
What you need is catergorise the Fav based on what the public see's in front of them , not something deep in your database factors and then you need a measure in the Gap between the Fav and the 2nd Fav.
Mo: Thanks Shipton - If someone had the patience , there would be easily Profits made by selective wagering - Dog that will lead and be hard to run down - Just need to find a reasonable Odds - and the 100% Market from Ladbrokes allowed that here
shipton: It's really not about selective wagering Mo, it's using different wagering strategies for different races. As i have said Handicapping and wagering can't be mixed together one is about strike rate the other is ROI
And most ppl only like to talk about Handicapping, if you mix Handicapping and wagering together you will get variance all the time, In wagering you want stability and the only way I know how to achieve that and i have posted this for at least 20yrs now
wagering factors are like up and down in a grade number , wins in a formline 1-1-1 etc a trainers name the last 5 starts or recency
What you need is catergorise the Fav based on what the public see's in front of them , not something deep in your database factors and then you need a measure in the Gap between the Fav and the 2nd Fav.
When bet 365 go up with their prices , look at who the Fav is understand how it became the Fav for this race and the gap or strength over the 2nd Fav
there are only about a dozen or so things that make a dog the Fav, but you can order them , like winning form =1 Best time in recent start, best time trck/dst, Fav last start, consistent placing , Early speed , Favourable box setup.
Now take it like this Winx starts at 1.50 , you know the factors why its Fav winning form best of day times so it gets a catergory 1 now we have another horse that is unraced but has trialled its 1.50 also but the Factors making it Fav are a good trainer and good trials so its a catergory 2.
there are only about a dozen or so things that make a dog the Fav, but you can order them , like winning form =1 Best time in recent start, best time trck/dst, Fav last start, consistent placing , Early speed , Favourable box setup.
Now take it like this Winx starts at 1.50 , you know the factors why its Fav winning form best of day times so it gets a catergory 1 now we have another horse that is unraced but has trialled its 1.50 also but the Factors making it Fav are a good trainer and good trials so its a catergory 2.
Now what i do is a method of cluster analysis where i overlay my Handicapping ranking over each of those caterogies , i now see my top rank wins category 1 75% of the time whereas my cat2 is 50%
The public wager each Fav the same every time based on the Factors that made it Fav , catergorise every race is the basis of consistency, have one handicapping method but get the strike rate the best you can
The public wager each Fav the same every time based on the Factors that made it Fav , catergorise every race is the basis of consistency, have one handicapping method but get the strike rate the best you can
