Shout 231219

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shipton: ok good work and good night 2 hours ago
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shipton: then you'll be able to download and look a meeting and have all the races in 20minutes and be able to decide which races show some prospects 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: sweet 2 hours ago
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shipton: tomorrow , i'll write up the next steps and how to get each race to appear in the excel sheet 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I went back and downloaded all the races anyway, so that's going along nicely too 2 hours ago
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shipton: ok 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: and .txt in grv 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: .txt 2 hours ago
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shipton: wait there the races appeared in the text box and they had .xml on the end and not .txt 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yep things are appearing 2 hours ago
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shipton: check the Race folder? 2 hours ago
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shipton: it will do just one race 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Then it finished and kicked me out 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Its on single race and downloading away 2 hours ago
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shipton: now you have the option to download a single race or all races , by clicking single in the header menu 2 hours ago *
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shipton: lol finally 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yes the races have appeared in the text box finishing with xml 2 hours ago
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shipton: now paste the link for the xml file 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: 1 hour later, step 1 complete, haha 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: oh now that worked 2 hours ago
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shipton: exit it again and re-open 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: yep all correct 2 hours ago
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shipton: c|grv\Grv_Form\Race this is the correct case sensitive format 2 hours ago
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shipton: the c:\grv ( is in lowercase) \ no its Race not Races 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Sorry 'Race' 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: The file 'Races' is in as that 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I've input XmlFiles exactly as below 2 hours ago
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shipton: maybe its capital sensitive 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: ok 2 hours ago
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shipton: in the grv folder create another folder called XmlFiles , thise folder is normally used for vic dog formdownload 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: All good. Work is ridiculously strict. Apologies for wasting your time. 2 hours ago
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shipton: yep click Tasracing and the red writting will appear on program 2 hours ago
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shipton: i'll have a think overnight , but check with your IT why its not creating those folders 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: test.tasracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ff-LCN23Dec19.xml 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: pasted in this 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: and they got recreated, and no RACE folder, re-input Race folder 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I did 2 hours ago
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shipton: not sure what may have happened maybe just delete the grv folder from c:\and the other folders and run the DogId program again 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: yes 2 hours ago
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shipton: and when you double clicked the .exe file your computer would have asked permission to run 2 hours ago
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shipton: was this the name of the file you downloaded Dog_IDs_Shipton_1.2.exe 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yes 2 hours ago
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shipton: yep 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: No Data Connections 2 hours ago
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shipton: so did you download the excel sheet from the file bin 2 hours ago
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shipton: yeah but you don't need to unzip an xml file , the program will auto unpack it into txt files into each folder 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I'll check with the IT department. 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I would say that is definitely possible. Even XML files have come up as not being able to open from the winzip. 2 hours ago
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shipton: i'm not sure why its doing that, if you saved the .exe file in my documents , and double clicked it should have created folders, unless you have some sort of security proram blocking it 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: And if I do the same again below even with that file, it kicks me out 2 hours ago
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shipton: create a RACE Folder 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: There is no RACE folder 2 hours ago
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shipton: and you have the following folders have so you have C:\GRV\GRV_FORM\RACE 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Kicks me out 2 hours ago
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shipton: select Single race make sure Tasracing in red writing is showing under where you pasted the link , then press Get Race Id's, 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: If I hit delete files it just says pathtime not found and kicks me out 2 hours ago
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shipton: then press delete files in the header menu, then go an copy and paste the meeting.xml file into the blank space as you did before 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yep 2 hours ago
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shipton: close the dog id program and then re-open 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Its empty 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yep 2 hours ago
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shipton: if you look in c: drive do you have a c:\grv\ folder 2 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Its in xml . My computer doesn't recognise that file 3 hours ago
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shipton: so the program ran , if you read the help file on the top menu , you should have a number of new folders 3 hours ago
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shipton: did you download the excel sheet? as i have deleted the folder now 3 hours ago *
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oaksnaf: Into the program with TAS racing selected and get form ID but no pathway found 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I;ve cp=opied test.tasracing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ff-LCN23Dec19.xml 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: downloaded it, now extracting files 3 hours ago
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shipton: i posted a link in members , download it and then i'll remove 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: When I handicap those runners, I give them no chance of winning so in my ranking order they are very low. Which is right and wrong. I guess I just need to record their results over and over 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Ok. 3 hours ago
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shipton: i'll give you the sheet , you just download the form into it , from the formdownloader 3 hours ago *
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shipton: so its unlikely its a win wager more than 1 unit , mostly all plc units 3 hours ago
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shipton: i always denote FTP 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I haven't started that sheet yet, I'll do it next week 3 hours ago
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shipton: have you got the Tassie sheet 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: How do you factor in a runner who is a cat? 3 hours ago
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shipton: the formdownloader was done by the boys here for an excel sheet , i normally download via both csv and xml into my databses 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Well its impressive what you've built together. 3 hours ago
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shipton: well you can't do it all yourself 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Did you build everything yourself Shipton - or did you have a team 3 hours ago
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shipton: gee could be before that a victorian one , but its maybe still better then most have present day 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: The one from 2016? 3 hours ago
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shipton: i will put a link up and you download the file , its old but you can then look at the track adjustments 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I think the easiest type of runner to find that beats Joe is the example of Mepunga Bonnie in R10 on Sunday - why JOE had #2 that short has to be ridiculous. And yes that is coming from someone who had a bottom rater win @ $2.7 today 3 hours ago
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shipton: that last winner at Launceston Raging Ralston should have gone to Vic for the Sale cup 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: And that is all done systemically and with correctly founded math. Which is what I would like to create, haha. 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: So I try to take that variance out a bit in that way. 3 hours ago
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shipton: when i used the base time as a quartile of the top 25% , that quartile figure might be the best time , and not your Base Time 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I handicap races where they have more than 8 starts at minimum 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yes I use that as my 'dragged in' factor in my analysis. 3 hours ago
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shipton: you know dogs run quicker when they place higher , so no use comparing a win to a 5th place and that assuming you have normalised each run 3 hours ago
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shipton: well when runners have less form you then need to find common links , it might be just measuring the wins, if a dog has only run 5th , compare the other runners when they have run 5th or so 3 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Variance in the base time each runner will have. 3 hours ago
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shipton: i thought you meant variance in the track variant 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: but if you have a race with runners who have only had 4-16 starts.... ? 4 hours ago
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shipton: no the most basic method is to just subtract every run from every other run for each runner 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: yeah 4 hours ago
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shipton: what variance? in times 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I've been discussing a few things with him to try and get a better basic understanding of what is needed information wise in the beginning. 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: There is one wool trader I know that uses the charts to forecast pricing etc 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: The variance would be high in so many races though given the amount of races each runner has had though 4 hours ago
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shipton: and if your working on one or two tracks you need good track variant figures, cause that will seperate the classes for those tracks 4 hours ago *
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oaksnaf: haha yes because if they are wrong, everything is wrong from the beginning 4 hours ago
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shipton: well its crucial your adjustment figures are as good as you can get them 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I assume that is why you would normalise everything. So find some adjustment figure for tracks/classes etc 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yes to find highest and lowest I assume 4 hours ago
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shipton: its the same principle with candlestick wicks, if you think about using different subsets etc and do it for a few previous lines you start to get a forecasting tool 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yes I follow 4 hours ago
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ipunter: Thanks KM will be there with wify in tow, Merry Christmas bountiful New Year to all. 4 hours ago
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shipton: you then need an alpha adjustment figure between 1.00 and 0 the todays box is Box1 and thats a strong indicator so you may multiply -.20 * .50 =-.10 so its base time is now 30 - .10 get the drift 4 hours ago *
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oaksnaf: Yep 4 hours ago
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shipton: base time is 30 then the last 3 avg is 30.30 and todays box avg is 30.10 = we subtract 30.30-30.10 =-.20 4 hours ago
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shipton: which might equate to 30 sec is the dogs base time, then you need two other times based on different subsets like avg last 3 starts and avg from similar box 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Yes and then if all that top 25% appear in the first 25% of the dogs career, then it becomes obsolete 4 hours ago
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shipton: say if you had normalised all the times in a dogs formlines , you might say the base time will be the avg of the top quartile 25% 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I understand the concept of it, if you asked me to write math for it, then no 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: I find it interesting, that if you have a low S/R like 4.56% with average odds of $63 - that the confidence level is high on such a small sample size 4 hours ago
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shipton: with finding a base time , your familar with exponential smooth moving avgs 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: That's a good spreadsheet 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Aha 4 hours ago
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shipton: its odds to one 4 hours ago
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shipton: what % did you put in put in .50 and $1.00 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Have 7-2 @ Shep R8 4 hours ago
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oaksnaf: Why would my bankroll increase with high S/R and average odds of $1 ? 4 hours ago