|
Post by shipton on Dec 26, 2021 0:51:54 GMT
Hi Mick, you asked about expected wins etc A2E, here are my PIR 1 & 2 for Tassy dogs I work off, I also use the same table and adjust using a type of Dr.Z formula to also create A2E for Placings based of each PIR in tandem I use the SP odds(normailsed for FS and too 100%) converted to decimals in the same way, what I don't want to do is get too using too small a samples you should always be looking at the Standard Error . Attachment Deleted
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Dec 26, 2021 0:58:03 GMT
Kev. Having looked at the Launceston meeting and run my numbers, I'll just post from races 5-10 or so which are mainly 515 races and the last race is a 278mtr. With the 515 most dogs run predominantly over the shorter distances on the 1 turn tracks you need to take note of wide runners as they are going to run the extra distance thru that additional turn, so pay attention to railers. also because its a very messy track for interference (also the deadliest track in Aus) we have to focus on runners close to lead
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Dec 26, 2021 3:37:47 GMT
Races 5&6 both 515mtrs Race 5 the three outside drawn dogs all want inside as a preference, the #1 dog moves wide at the exit on the one turn tracks but has very good Run_hme figures. Race 6 the #3 has extremely good run_hme figures on the one turn tracks, tends slow early but rails well as does the #2 dog not fast early but strong railer
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Dec 27, 2021 3:20:12 GMT
Race 7 & 8 Race 7 #7 is very unpredictable been priced on old form currently, last few or so runs have been below par.
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Dec 27, 2021 4:20:37 GMT
|
|