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Post by shipton on Jan 9, 2022 1:02:33 GMT
Race 5 Attachment Deleted This is an interesting race re A2E for the SP and PIR1 so I just added those sections the #8 is over-wagered and also doesn't perform when it finds it's a good PIR1.
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Post by shipton on Jan 9, 2022 1:29:42 GMT
Race 5 CXWONG sheet odds based on LTD Track distance, the two things you need to keep in my mind with Tas dogs are the preferred distance of a runner and small sample size (runners with only a few starts, which needs to be examined line by line for handicapping purposes)
No. Score Sigma Prob Fair odd 1 51.8 1.86 39.793% 2.5 2 49.0 1.86 3.425% 29.2 3 49.9 1.86 8.884% 11.3 4 50.7 1.86 16.840% 5.9 5 49.9 1.86 8.360% 12.0 6 48.9 1.86 3.258% 30.7 7 50.3 1.86 12.167% 8.2 8 49.7 1.86 7.256% 13.8
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Post by shipton on Jan 9, 2022 2:00:29 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 9, 2022 4:28:14 GMT
Races 7 & 8 _
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 21:54:00 GMT
Race 5 CXWONG sheet odds based on LTD Track distance, the two things you need to keep in my mind with Tas dogs are the preferred distance of a runner and small sample size (runners with only a few starts, which needs to be examined line by line for handicapping purposes) No. Score Sigma Prob Fair odd 1 51.8 1.86 39.793% 2.5 2 49.0 1.86 3.425% 29.2 3 49.9 1.86 8.884% 11.3 4 50.7 1.86 16.840% 5.9 5 49.9 1.86 8.360% 12.0 6 48.9 1.86 3.258% 30.7 7 50.3 1.86 12.167% 8.2 8 49.7 1.86 7.256% 13.8 I wouldn't mind some of the $30.7 about #6
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Post by shipton on Jan 10, 2022 4:48:49 GMT
R5 I agree somewhat, but realise it is only based on finish times, you can work out the Split probs using the same cxwong sheet, plus only a couple of those dogs show a Positive expectation in the SP, but all show PE in their PIR1 with exception the #8 dog who you'd have long gone broke backing for a win.
Here is the formlines for the #6 dog, box position information is interesting for this runner
Date TRK_DST Box# Placing VART PIR#1 PIR#2 ART 6/01/2022 HOB461 4 3 30.17 1 2 99.5 30/12/2021 HOB461 1 5 30.15 1 2 99.7 23/12/2021 HOB461 6 2 30.08 1 1 101.5 16/12/2021 HOB461 5 1 30.14 1 1 100.2 9/12/2021 HOB461 7 6 30.58 4 5 91.0 25/11/2021 HOB461 5 1 30.15 1 1 99.8 16/11/2021 DEV452 6 4 30.32 1 2 97.3 11/11/2021 HOB461 8 5 30.60 2 3 90.6 4/11/2021 HOB461 2 1 30.21 2 1 98.9 26/10/2021 DEV452 3 1 30.06 1 1 101.9 19/10/2021 DEV452 7 4 30.33 2 3 96.8 7/10/2021 HOB461 7 5 30.92 2 4 84.7 27/09/2021 LCN515 4 7 30.32 2 2 96.1 20/09/2021 LCN515 2 1 29.96 1 1 102.1 6/09/2021 LCN515 3 1 30.20 1 1 98.0 31/08/2021 DEV452 5 8 30.86 4 7 83.1 26/08/2021 HOB461 2 2 30.24 2 1 98.0 16/08/2021 HOB461 6 3 30.18 1 1 99.2 9/08/2021 HOB461 3 2 30.16 1 1 100.1 5/08/2021 LCN515 1 1 29.93 1 1 102.6 29/07/2021 HOB461 1 1 30.08 1 1 101.4 26/07/2021 LCN515 7 5 30.65 5 1 90.6 20/07/2021 DEV452 1 1 30.19 2 1 99.8 8/07/2021 HOB461 3 1 30.09 1 1 100.7 5/07/2021 LCN515 5 6 30.88 8 FALSE 86.7 28/06/2021 LCN515 4 2 30.02 1 1 101.2 21/06/2021 LCN515 6 4 30.50 3 3 93.1 14/06/2021 LCN515 6 1 30.04 1 1 100.8 8/06/2021 DEV452 5 1 30.32 1 1 95.5 27/05/2021 HOB461 1 2 30.35 1 1 95.7 18/05/2021 DEV452 5 5 30.54 3 3 91.4
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Post by shipton on Jan 10, 2022 10:49:00 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 10, 2022 23:06:22 GMT
Here is the form-lines for Classy lady the #4 in R5 last night, if you look at the LCN starts its chalk and cheese, if you filtered the SP data it's a positive exp. to win and a very good place wager.
As I said in a post re. Hobart the other day, if this dog races at Hob it's avg rating is high based on the LCN starts, but really it just under-performs on the one turn track, these are the sort of dogs you need to try and find
Name Date TRK_DST Box# Placing VART PIR#1 PIR#2 ART CLASSY LADY 9/12/2021 HOB461 8 7 30.58 5 5 90.7 CLASSY LADY 25/11/2021 HOB461 4 3 30.73 8 8 88.8 CLASSY LADY 16/11/2021 DEV452 7 8 30.57 6 8 93.3 CLASSY LADY 3/11/2021 DEV452 6 5 30.23 3 3 100.0 CLASSY LADY 25/10/2021 LCN515 5 1 29.89 1 1 103.7 CLASSY LADY 18/10/2021 LCN515 4 2 30.05 1 1 102.7 CLASSY LADY 4/10/2021 LCN515 5 3 30.06 1 2 99.1 CLASSY LADY 27/09/2021 LCN515 1 2 29.94 1 1 103.3 CLASSY LADY 20/09/2021 LCN515 3 2 30.01 1 1 99.8 CLASSY LADY 24/08/2021 DEV452 1 1 30.22 1 1 100.4 CLASSY LADY 22/07/2021 HOB461 8 7 30.50 6 7 92.7 CLASSY LADY 12/07/2021 LCN515 2 2 29.81 5 3 104.6 CLASSY LADY 5/07/2021 LCN515 2 1 29.84 1 1 106.3 CLASSY LADY 29/06/2021 DEV452 6 3 30.21 3 3 98.5 CLASSY LADY 15/06/2021 DEV452 1 4 30.28 4 4 99.1 CLASSY LADY 7/06/2021 LCN515 8 1 29.89 1 1 106.3 CLASSY LADY 25/05/2021 DEV452 8 1 30.30 6 3 99.6
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2022 23:43:15 GMT
Here is the form-lines for Classy lady the #4 in R5 last night, if you look at the LCN starts its chalk and cheese, if you filtered the SP data it's a positive exp. to win and a very good place wager. As I said in a post re. Hobart the other day, if this dog races at Hob it's avg rating is high based on the LCN starts, but really it just under-performs on the one turn track, these are the sort of dogs you need to try and find The dog seems to do okay at Devenport. Is Devenport in the same style as Hobart or is it closer to Launceston ?
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Post by shipton on Jan 11, 2022 0:30:26 GMT
Devonport is a one turn track like Hobart but the boxes 452 are aligned with the running rails, whereas both LCN and Hobart are abour 6-8 metres from running rail with the box placement Devonport located close to the foreshore normally they get a tailwind running home, but as as Fernanind boy found the other month if the wind doesn't swing around its a very tough run home into a headwind
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