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Post by shipton on Jan 12, 2022 23:07:09 GMT
Race 1 Attachment Deleted1pt=1mtr. Rember small start numbers will always cause variance if you look at Special Bond and Pablo Titan both enough starts for confidence in their figures, both have negative expectations for SP and PIR1 meaning they are over-bet and get into good position at the first split but don't convert to wins
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Post by shipton on Jan 12, 2022 23:12:33 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 12, 2022 23:27:00 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 12, 2022 23:38:00 GMT
Race 4 Not many starts, ideally you try an match like for like if one runner has won, you look at it's time compared to what winners normally run, if a dog ran 4th you compare that 4th ART against what dogs normally running 4th run. Attachment Deleted
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Post by shipton on Jan 12, 2022 23:48:16 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 13, 2022 0:03:06 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 13, 2022 0:32:30 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 13, 2022 4:29:34 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 13, 2022 4:36:58 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 13, 2022 4:57:59 GMT
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Post by shipton on Jan 13, 2022 5:09:45 GMT
The last 2 races 9 -10 both 340mtr races Fav in r9 Parkour has only limited runs over the shorter dist but is very quick over the 452/461 , Saying that Mike on Tasracing has dodged the fav and gone for the #8 there is not much between the #8 an the #2 with early speed.
Race 10 Mike doesn't go the #7 in the last, as it's form is better over 278 which flatters the overall numbers and has not run a strong 340, #2 improved a mile last start.the #6 has been consistent and can run home well, Mike prefers the #8 who has positive expectations both sp an PIR1
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 5:32:13 GMT
The last 2 races 9 -10 both 340mtr races Fav in r9 Parkour has only limited runs over the shorter dist but is very quick over the 452/461 , Saying that Mike on Tasracing has dodged the fav and gone for the #8 there is not much between the #8 an the #2 with early speed. Race 10 Mike doesn't go the #7 in the last, as it's form is better over 278 which flatters the overall numbers and has not run a strong 340, #2 improved a mile last start.the #6 has been consistent and can run home well, Mike prefers the #8 who has positive expectations both sp an PIR1 This style of posting is very easy for readers to decide how to wager on a race , but does open yourself up to look foolish. Regardless , I would like to be able to have the confidence and the ability and the surety to post in this manner. But every time I start work on a race with this intended sort of post , I find an infinite number of unknowns that mess up the whole race and cause me to find nothing useful to share.
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