|
|
Post by shipton on May 23, 2023 0:02:55 GMT
Here is CX wong sheet for HK racing. I have added some comments, I will post the stdev avg at bottom of my race ratings, so people can have a chance to look at basic pricing 5.2 Normal DistributionV1.xlsm (52.61 KB) Kev this file is updated, so use this instead of the last sheet, This sheet has some races for tomorrow night , just copy an paste into the Normal Distribution sheet, all you will need to do is adjust Cell B1 depending on if you use split ratings or ART finish time ratings |
|
|
|
Post by shipton on May 28, 2023 2:54:34 GMT
I have updated the Kev sample sheet for LCN 29/5/2023. I have posted most of the 278mtrs races. This should give a good basis to start with pricing any race of these races. It is good practice to see the first split probs. make sure you always are looking an adjusting cell B1 based on the data either being split or finish times, refer to sheet CDF and scroll to the left hand side of sheet, the ideal situation is checking row 1 scroll along to the right hand side you will note rows with .999 etc you need one of those rows to have a 1 before the range finishes at the top
i have now updated the sheet to show the 1st split and the ART (finish time) Probs based on the Norm. Dist. sheet
|
|
|
|
Post by kevinm on May 29, 2023 8:57:49 GMT
Thanks Shipton
|
|
|
|
Post by shipton on May 30, 2023 9:09:44 GMT
I have updated the sample sheet to include Thurs Hobart 340mtr races, should give a chance to review the videos of these dogs and where they expect to settle. which is important at Hob 340, so early or midfield trapped wide thru the whole first turn is a big disadvantage unless they can run on strong.
|
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Jun 25, 2023 1:37:55 GMT
Mick I will post a few documents that sort of relate to what you were asking re. using PIR these don't relate directly but can be used as a basis, there are 4 pages in this pdf document post_P1.pdf (615.68 KB) post_p2.pdf (615.68 KB) Post_p3.pdf (450.56 KB) |
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Jun 25, 2023 1:39:10 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Jun 25, 2023 1:52:06 GMT
this next document is from Gordon Waite 1989 who created a monte carlo program I gave Moee a dos copy back in the time, I would have it on archived on a hard drive somewhere again page by page because of upload limits breaker_p1.pdf (875.43 KB) breaker_p2.pdf (901.9 KB) breaker_p3.pdf (961.91 KB) |
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Jun 25, 2023 1:55:42 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by shipton on Jun 25, 2023 6:27:43 GMT
The PIR's i use are the 1st split, 2nd split and Finish, but within those I rank the difference in time between 1st and 2nd split which I call the t1-t2accel and then the run home ranking, which is the difference between 2nd split and finish time. Now you should also have an idea of the difference in Class between grades, each grade basically runs quicker then the grade below.
So as an overview when you look at the formlines of each runner you should know the grade of todays race. A dog that is competitive in the same grade will normally have placed at least once recently in that grade, its PIRs should also be adjusted accordingly depending on that grade, if it's a lower grade it should have a better PIR / Finish.
If your trying to design any sort of point system, winners will gain positions and losers lose positions, so I would be eyeballing the 1st split minus t1-t2 accel is it gaining positions and then look at 2nd split to Finish position has it gained any positions and thirdly t1-t2 accel ranking minus Run Home ranking and then you would be referencing any grade and distances changes as those will impact PIR's as well
|
|
