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Post by shipton on Nov 5, 2023 8:11:39 GMT
RACE 11 and 6 are both very good dogs, the 1 has the draw and should take advantage is a very keen chaser, same as it's littermate the 3 both are from a hard chasing champion brood bitch, 6 is drawn well wide centre of track , 2 and 4 normally shift a bit wide and 3 also is a railer Have added the first two races into Formline sheet added a few more races into the formline sheet I have added the Log Loss calculations into the formlines sheet, I only did the first race so you can see the formulas that are used. Remember know one knows BSP before the event, its a good way to Benchmark your pricing LCN6-11results Here are the performances for this meeting FORMLINE_TAS_v1.1.xlsm (474.95 KB)
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Post by shipton on Nov 5, 2023 8:18:22 GMT
Race 2the key to the early map might be if the two reserves can gain a start as both can run good splits, without them the 5 looks likely leader, with the 2 dog and 1 followed by the 3. 1 likes to shift a bit from rails 2 likes rails been a bit unlucky has shown some good data in different splits but not put it all together in a race, 4 normally slow out and crosses rails wants longer distance. 6 and 7 both wide runners and the 8 a slow beginner
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Post by shipton on Nov 5, 2023 10:54:25 GMT
Race 3most of these dogs are longtime maidens the 3 and 6 have led a lot of races and finished well back I have posted the PIR table, the early speed of those couple of dogs then makes dogs like the 10 and 9 look to be well back in the field, but in the off chance they get a start they will be very competitive
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Post by shipton on Nov 5, 2023 22:15:27 GMT
RACE 4really nothing to see this race, 6 will come up very short, it's an even money chance to lead even shorter to the top turn, 1 dog look to be running injur last two starts down in form, 3 is a wide runner first go longer distance, 7 shifts wide T1 and the 8 stays wide all ensuring the 6 gets a clean run
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Post by shipton on Nov 6, 2023 2:34:13 GMT
RACE 7early speed is the 9 dog will be interesting to see the roadblock it may cause inside, 6 looks likely to follow and maybe get a nice clean run, recent form has been down since returning from spell but has had excuses, 1 and 2 trainer has always kept them apart other than feature races and the 2 has had the upper hand on those occasions , 4 can begin back tracks wide down the back , 8 prefers a rails draw, 7 also begins well but has a flat spot thru T1
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Post by shipton on Nov 6, 2023 7:35:54 GMT
Race 5Tough race to get a good handle, early speed 8 and 6 with the 9, 4 and 1 on the inside, 8 is going to try and cross the field a tough ask but racing well, 6 also wants inside /centre, the 5 can be hit amiss and racing centre track so not badly drawn, but needs a lot to go right to maybe win. 1 likes to get a bit wide /centre so needs to jump close to lead and hold them out , 9 wants rails but since it had a short break in sept. been off the pace at the finish, 4 is drawn well leading would be no surprise likes centre track
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