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Post by shipton on Nov 12, 2023 5:11:42 GMT
RACE 2EARLY SPEED LIKELY THE 7, 2 AND 4. 1 THE 2 LIKE TO SHIFT WIDE WHICH MAY ADVANTAGE 1, 7 DRAWN WELL HAS BEEN CHECKED OUT LAST FEW STARTS BUT HAS THE EARLY SPEED TO CROSS. THE 4 DOG HAS ALSO BEEN CHECKED OUT RECENTLY, IT NEEDS A CLEAN BEGINNING LIKE THE 7. 3 HAS BEEN GOING WELL BUT HAS A FLAT SPOT AFTER THE START BUT DRAWN OK Have added R8 you'll need your thinking cap on for this race. FORMLINE_TAS_v1.1.xlsm (531.38 KB) Result_sheetHere is last nights winners sectionals HOBART14/11 RESULTShere are the sectionals for a few runners from yesterdays meet.
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Post by shipton on Nov 12, 2023 5:17:46 GMT
Race 34 LIKELY LEADER, WILL CROSS HARD RAILS. 1 DRAWN VERY WELL ON THE RAILS, BUT WILL SHIFT WIDE AT THE EXIT OF T1, 6 AND 7 HAVE THE EARLY SPEED OUT WIDE, 7 DRAWN VERY WELL TO RUN AROUND FIELD, HAS BEEN RACING VERY WELL. 2 AND 3 BOTH LIKE TO SHIFT WIDE.
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Post by shipton on Nov 12, 2023 5:31:17 GMT
RACE 64 DOG A CLASS ABOVE THESE DOGS. EARLY SPEED IS THE 1 BUT DOES SHIFT WIDE AT TURNS HAS BEEN RACING WELL BUT SUSPECT AT FINISH, 4 AND 8 MOST LIKELY TO FOLLOW THRU T1, 4 LIKES CENTRE TRACK HAS SHOWN TO BE A STRONG RUNNER, 8 WAS WELL BEATEN BY THE 4 BEFORE WHEN THEY RACED TOGETHER, 6 HAS BEEN IMPROVING SINCE A SPELL WHEN IT STARTED HEAVY NOW GETTING DOWN IN WEIGHT
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Post by shipton on Nov 12, 2023 6:36:03 GMT
RACE 7 a bit of early speed in the 2 but it did suffer interference its last start on the 31/10 and has not raced the 515m before, would be thinking it may at least lead to the top turn, 5 has also been showing early speed but also fading towards the finish, 4 has raced really well likes centre /wide so not badly drawn. 8 is drawn very well but has a FTP which marks it down from a winning chance.
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Post by shipton on Nov 13, 2023 5:56:42 GMT
Race 52 dog performs better drawn wide when it can cross and get a "racing line" thru the turn, normally shifts out when drawn inside, 1 dog also shifts out from the boxes, I'm thinking if the 6 is ok returning from spell its leads and crosses, the 7 will be following it across and harrassing as it's a FTP dog, that gives the 8 a clean run but it generally is too slow at box rise to take advantage, 5 is drawn well centre track it just needs a clean run thru t1 will be very strong in the run home, 9 has early speed crosses to rails
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gush
New Member
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Post by gush on Nov 13, 2023 8:13:41 GMT
Nice work Shipton. Have been reading up on a lot of your forum posts on this and the old ozmium forum (I think its you there - different name)
Would you say that is still relevant to categorise each race based on the form factor that led the public to determine their favourite? And then see how your handicapping goes against each of these categories? Or is there more smart money in the markets now so that this is less of an edge
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Post by shipton on Nov 13, 2023 8:54:34 GMT
Hi Gush, there was another poster here that tried doing very similar things as you said, catergorise the race based on those factors that were assigned to the Fav he did many races but just couldnt get past breakeven so decided the effort wasn't worth the pursuit.
It really is a two part process, The second part to the equation is the avg stdev of the race and particularly the Fav. so the stdev basically describes races with a lot of variance. So once you have catrgorised base on +Factors you then sort by STDEV variance.
It requires a lot of effort to do, but you also have to have confidence in your ratings.
Under the 1st split column and the Art is the race avg stdev
The cutdown version is to just look at those Public Favs via the Formline sheet and try to see what made them the Fav. Look for exceptions to the rules for each distance, you know sprint 278mtrs races , good box speed, good box position, still accelerating at the finish.
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gush
New Member
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Post by gush on Nov 13, 2023 10:08:18 GMT
Have you found edges getting smaller over time or much the same?
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Post by shipton on Nov 13, 2023 21:41:59 GMT
Edges are always under stress because the dogs rotate in and out of racing, new litters with different underlying habits, lure setup change, so it's a constant, you need to be moving on things all the time
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