Post by shipton on Jan 24, 2024 8:24:26 GMT
I have loaded the sheet with the first few races they have little exposed formlines, maybe pay attention to the oddsline of their recent runs especially if they have failed, then review those races and look for exposed formlines times of the other racers to see what the expected time may have been for this failed but well supported runner.
As an example r3 #1 wynburn solstice started a short price fav was a first start runner I have attached the market from its last race the runners that placed were 1,2 and 3 their known ratings were around the 96 mark with a stdev of around 3.6 using that as the basis to get WS to around $1.55 it needed a rating of about 102 and the #5 in that table is the other first starter with an expected rating of around 98, both were checked out of race, so going forward in tomorrows race I will rate in R3 the #1 WS around that 102 mark as the baseline figure
FORMLINE_TAS_v1.1.xlsm (489.06 KB)
HOB 25/1 RESULTS
standout performance by Dealer especially racing tight for the run to T1. it's raw run home time puts it in the top 10 of the last few years. Tommy Shelby couldn't run that time, and Hooked on Scotch could barely break 14.50. Looks like Medhurst has another Raging Ralston on his hands
As an example r3 #1 wynburn solstice started a short price fav was a first start runner I have attached the market from its last race the runners that placed were 1,2 and 3 their known ratings were around the 96 mark with a stdev of around 3.6 using that as the basis to get WS to around $1.55 it needed a rating of about 102 and the #5 in that table is the other first starter with an expected rating of around 98, both were checked out of race, so going forward in tomorrows race I will rate in R3 the #1 WS around that 102 mark as the baseline figure
FORMLINE_TAS_v1.1.xlsm (489.06 KB)
HOB 25/1 RESULTS
standout performance by Dealer especially racing tight for the run to T1. it's raw run home time puts it in the top 10 of the last few years. Tommy Shelby couldn't run that time, and Hooked on Scotch could barely break 14.50. Looks like Medhurst has another Raging Ralston on his hands
