Post by shipton on Jun 16, 2024 6:16:57 GMT
Good to get a few 515mt races on the card have uploaded the first 5
FORMLINE_TAS_v1.1_17_06.xlsm (630.45 KB)
The other week, in the shout box I posted how I record the dogs either side of runners how they begin and how having a slow beginner inside or outside can be a real positive to a dogs chances, I have added another column to the end on the result file that just does a simple comparison using the first split times not as accurate but still a good indicator, as an example
So basically when you breakdown a race into the various variables, I try to limit how many groups I i use within a variable to 4 or 3 so in this case its 4. I assign an alpha to a runner where a it's positioned at PIR1 eg A=1-2 , B=3-4, C=5,6,7 and D=8 and a vacant box here is an example. these are the first 4 winners over 515m last night D4B, D2C, D2A and C1C, the number is the PIR1 example C1C the first C is the dog drawn inside, so in this case it may have been 5th,6th or 7th at PIR1, the 1 indicates the runner was 1st at PIR1 and the trailing C the dog drawn outside was 5th, 6th or 7th at PIR1 , so when I do any modeling on a race I will be using this as a filter of sorts, what starts to become evident the D and C in the first position become prominent in winners over time.
Now a step further when looking at the Formline tables you can start to create an Expected figure just based on the PIR margins and Split Time or Probs to get a ranking.
It's a pretty simple method which is normally well exposed these days
LCN 17/06 RESULTS
LCN18-06 Results
HOB 20-06 RESULTS
Monday night the track played close to even, Tuesday was slowish maybe around -.05 for 515m and the Thursday slowish -.03 for 461m
FORMLINE_TAS_v1.1_17_06.xlsm (630.45 KB)
The other week, in the shout box I posted how I record the dogs either side of runners how they begin and how having a slow beginner inside or outside can be a real positive to a dogs chances, I have added another column to the end on the result file that just does a simple comparison using the first split times not as accurate but still a good indicator, as an example
So basically when you breakdown a race into the various variables, I try to limit how many groups I i use within a variable to 4 or 3 so in this case its 4. I assign an alpha to a runner where a it's positioned at PIR1 eg A=1-2 , B=3-4, C=5,6,7 and D=8 and a vacant box here is an example. these are the first 4 winners over 515m last night D4B, D2C, D2A and C1C, the number is the PIR1 example C1C the first C is the dog drawn inside, so in this case it may have been 5th,6th or 7th at PIR1, the 1 indicates the runner was 1st at PIR1 and the trailing C the dog drawn outside was 5th, 6th or 7th at PIR1 , so when I do any modeling on a race I will be using this as a filter of sorts, what starts to become evident the D and C in the first position become prominent in winners over time.
Now a step further when looking at the Formline tables you can start to create an Expected figure just based on the PIR margins and Split Time or Probs to get a ranking.
It's a pretty simple method which is normally well exposed these days
LCN 17/06 RESULTS
LCN18-06 Results
HOB 20-06 RESULTS
Monday night the track played close to even, Tuesday was slowish maybe around -.05 for 515m and the Thursday slowish -.03 for 461m