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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 1:20:49 GMT
I find it strange that so few races actually suit my top two rated horses running style, so i have more a lot more work to do in this area but i will list all races to give some idea of what im talking about as i have ratings on nearly all races. I will list all but would mainly look at favs rated = under $3.00 maybe only place bet if not fav = under $3.00 ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?
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Post by eggy79 on Nov 18, 2014 2:52:10 GMT
I cant remember the %'s but horses that race on speed have a higher winning % than those backmarkers who flash home late for a place and everyone then blackbooks them.
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 5:22:34 GMT
PREDICTED POSITION IN RUNNING METRO B,S,M,A,P
Value Bets Wins SR Avg POT Outs
1 16760 2316 13.8% $6.40 -7.24% 54 2 16761 2019 12.0% $6.90 -10.69% 59 3 16760 1969 11.7% $7.30 -6.63% 83 4 16752 1756 10.5% $7.70 -12.12% 67 5 16661 1651 9.9% $8.30 -12.58% 73 6 16368 1607 9.8% $8.60 -10.08% 79 7 15625 1386 8.9% $8.80 -11.37% 124 8 14306 1163 8.1% $9.80 -13.96% 63 9 12460 972 7.8% $10.40 -11.46% 146 10 10209 736 7.2% $11.50 -12.96% 90 11 7773 446 5.7% $10.20 -24.42% 120 12 5619 334 5.9% $12.30 -14.01% 99 13 3623 198 5.5% $15.20 -16.65% 106 14 2370 107 4.5% $16.30 -24.00% 97 15 1267 65 5.1% $13.30 -8.16% 76 16 746 32 4.3% $13.80 -21.59% 111 17 123 12 9.8% $15.20 73.73% 30 18 81 2 2.5% $12.20 -45.66% 48 19 18 1 5.6% $8.20 50.15% 17 20 14 0 0.0% NaN -100.00% 14 21 6 0 0.0% NaN -100.00% 6 22 6 0 0.0% NaN -100.00% 6 23 4 0 0.0% NaN -100.00% 4 24 2 0 0.0% NaN -100.00% 2
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 5:31:34 GMT
RUNNING STYLE
Value Bets Wins SR AVR/P LOT ? 9664 773 8.0% $10.30 -8.05% B 57854 4629 8.0% $9.50 -14.84% H 36443 3932 10.8% $7.80 -7.93% M 39605 3765 9.5% $8.60 -11.69% P 30748 3673 11.9% $7.10 -9.75%
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 5:52:37 GMT
I KEEP FORGETTING THESE RESULTS ARE BASED ON BETTING TO PRICE , AS I SEE THIS AS A MUCH BETTER WAY OF WORKING THINGS OUT.
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Post by eggy79 on Nov 18, 2014 5:57:04 GMT
when betting to a price, do you stake to return a certain amount?
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Post by eggy79 on Nov 18, 2014 5:58:34 GMT
when betting to a price, do you do your own markets as a comparison?
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 6:10:46 GMT
I bet to the best price i can get to take out 4% of bank 1000 bank bet to return $40.00 at 2.00 bet $20.00 return $40.00 , i cant price squat as an overs market but the horses rated 3.00 and less really stand out and think this is mainly due to fav longshot bais.
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Post by eggy79 on Nov 18, 2014 7:41:46 GMT
have you ever used the racing and sports worksheet and neurals as a guide to prices?
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 9:12:48 GMT
I have plenty of price guides, but even with all my computer generated markets, none of them are good enough to do overs, but could be used as a price guide, but i would rather use the main two tabs and average their prices as there is a lot more work in most actual early bookies markets than in any computer generated ones.
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 9:20:31 GMT
I acutely re-framed one of the early bookies markets to 100% and looked at that for overs and still no go as an overs market , i still think that their may be something in horses that open fav at track and get out a bit ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ? %%%% as im pretty sure you cant win on favs that get below there opening prices ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) its just a diff angle to look at .
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Post by shirley on Nov 18, 2014 9:43:46 GMT
I just went through today opening markets you would have backed 3 favs all won 3.0 4.0 3.8 i would only look at horses that opened a t$3.00 or less or it maybe better to set a price on the re rated market of $3.80 or less and the opening or equal fav to make the most of fav bias as most will still start fav ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) rerated the 3 prices today were 3.6 3.7 and 2.7 you needed to get or better ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ? as said i would not get away from the opening fav , but would go close may need some race selection or distance selection race i dont know but i have a fancy for 1000 meters to 1400 for favs or may be out to 2050 meters ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?
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Post by shirley on Nov 19, 2014 1:59:20 GMT
BALAKLAVA
6.1 $2.60 1F 2ND P1
SANDOWN
6.5 $4.60 1F 2ND M8
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Post by shirley on Nov 19, 2014 7:19:51 GMT
WELL the re rated favs 10 bets not a winner what a difference a day makes cant see that re rating the opening fav will work either.
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Post by shirley on Nov 20, 2014 1:13:36 GMT
BEAUDESERT
2.8 1F $1.60 1ST $1.40 HI
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Post by shirley on Nov 21, 2014 1:12:32 GMT
HAWKESBURY
8.1 1F $3.00 UPL H2
ORANGE
4.2 1F $2.60 1ST $3.20 M1
TOWNSIVLLE
5.2 IF $3.20 2ND H2
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Post by shirley on Nov 22, 2014 1:04:35 GMT
I will just go with the 1F from now on.
ARMIDALE
4.7 1F $2.20 1ST $2.30 $1.60 M6
ASCOT
7.13 1F 2.70 UPL M6
BALLARAT
1.5 1F $3.70 2ND $2.60 M 6
4.2 1F $2.20 UPL M 9
6.1 1F $1.90 2ND $1.30 P I
MORPHETTVILLE
4.1 1F $1.70 2ND $1.10 P 1
5.6 !F $2.20 UPL H I
NEWCASTLE
2.2 1F $2.20 2ND $2.10 P 1
6.10 1F $3.80 1ST $3.90 $1.60 M 6
GERALDTON
7.1 1F $2.60 2ND $1.50 H 1
CRANBOURNE
1.11 $1.80 1ST $1.60 $1.20 H 1
5.10 $3.30 UPL M 7
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Post by shirley on Nov 22, 2014 1:10:52 GMT
STILL SOME TO COME FOR THE LATER MEETINGS, BUT TOO MANY BETS HARD TO SEE IT WORKING BUT AS RACE SUITABILITY IS THE ONLY RULE OUT SIDE OF TOP 2 RATED AND PREPOST FAV ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) IM STILL ONLY INTERESTED IN THE SHORTER END SO WHO KNOWS, THIS IS MY FIRST ATTEMPT OUTSIDE OF GENERAL RACE PACE AND POSITING IN RUNNING, AS TO BEING RACE SPECIFIC FOR BOTH OF THOSE.
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Post by shirley on Nov 22, 2014 7:03:41 GMT
i WENT THROUGH AND GOT RID OF 2Fs AND PUT IN EXPECTED RUNNING POSITION, IT WOULD SEEM THAT BACK MARKERS ARE VERY BAD EVEN AS PLACE PROSPECTS AND WIN AS WELL.
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Post by shirley on Nov 22, 2014 9:50:54 GMT
WILL ALSO REMOVE ALL BACK MARKERS AND SEE IF WE CAN GET CLOSE FROM THERE.
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Post by shirley on Nov 22, 2014 10:02:02 GMT
jUST RUNNING A TEST NOW ON P,H,M NO 1 ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?? BUT DOESN'T SEEM MUCH CHOP AS SYSTEM FROM THIS WEEKS RESULTS BUT WILL GO A BIT LONGER TO SEE ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?
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Post by shirley on Nov 22, 2014 10:06:47 GMT
TEST CAME BACK -10% FOR PLACE AND -6% FOR WIN LOT METRO, BUT THAT TEST WAS NOT RACE BY SUITABILITY, IT WAS JUST ALL FAVS IN IN TOGETHER ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png)
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Post by shirley on Nov 23, 2014 7:57:54 GMT
While race speed seems it is a minor form factor it still needs to be used with position and racing style and tends to suit tight tracks and wider barriers ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ? so doesn't seem to be much use as a system rule ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?? for all races.
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Post by shirley on Nov 24, 2014 0:27:08 GMT
backmarkers only by early race speed
Value Bets Wins SR Avg POT Outs
AA 26547 1898 7.1% $10.30 -15.74% 79 AV 36220 2927 8.1% $9.00 -15.83% 82 BA 21030 1860 8.8% $8.60 -15.64% 83 FS 39330 2767 7.0% $11.60 -11.46% 104 SL 19127 1969 10.3% $7.50 -14.72% 52
a & av is average sl, slow ba below,aa, above average
so only a slight advantage in fast early speed races.
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Post by shirley on Nov 24, 2014 0:45:18 GMT
Out of interest i couldn't find any tracks that really suited back markers, like moonee valley for front runners or some tracks have good last start winner from for the next race.
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Post by eggy79 on Nov 24, 2014 8:14:04 GMT
Flemington would suit backmarkers
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